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I will let the pictures do the talking, fiscal reality meets physical realty. My opinions on why this is happening and how much farther it could go. Price declines 10-18%, Sales Declines of $+6 billion, listing discounts increasing to greater than +10%, average days on the market increasing over 175 days, you get the picture and with Job losses increasing →…read more Arguably the world's most successful and well known short seller, Jim Chanos has some strong opinions on China's urban real estate bubble. Regardless of your opinion on the matter, his debate and argument is worthwhile watching in regards to macro China. In regards to China, I have deep concerns and am nervous about the global ramifications of a half awakened giant →…read more Farnam street may be the best econoblog you never heard of. Farnam Street's emphasis on common sense, ethics and behaviour is fantastic and highly educational. Here is the latest find, see video below. For the record, I am a bigger fan of Hayek, but both are more schools of philosphy than arbiters of a true science. Keynes stimulus is nice in theory →…read more I believe efficient and recognized property rights to land etc. are one of the keys to sustainable economic development. Hernando de Soto puts forth the case for property rights very well and has aided in the registration of hundreds of thousands if not million of homes that were dead capital. I put de Soto as an odds on favorite for a →…read more James Montier doesn't wear ties or suits etc. He doesn't look smooth or polished. He isn't the type you would put in a line-up of likely bankers, and yet he is refreshingly honest and knowledgeable about investing. Montier is an economist and global equity strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, a German-owned investment bank. Montier has common sense and the ability →…read more Losses of up to 58% predicted in NYC commercial real estate in 2011. Article in Jan 8,2010 New York Times. Readers of Designing Better Futures would have known about the potential for this since Feb 4, 2009. Article Tarp for Trump 60% declines for Manhattan Real Estate. The decline estimates were for residential real estate which still has room to go, but →…read more So the holiday season is here and you have just received a pair of Black Swan goggles. These allow you to spot Financial black swans safely from any distance. Unfortunately due to the warranty restrictions you aren't allowed to profit from your new super powers. Now imagine you could also travel back in time with your swanky swan goggles. What →…read more The 30 Year bond auction was a bit disappointing. According to Bloomberg: Treasury 30-year bonds declined The bid-to-cover ratio, which gauges demand by comparing Nassim in some more focused presesntations before congress. Ht: Rocky Chen Here is Rick Bookstabers Testimony on VaR, which is a very good introductory read. My own opinion is that the best way to measure financial risk is to assume it is a function of concentration of opinion or belief. The more people, models, institutions etc. →…read more |
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Creative Commons; 2010 Designing Better Futures - rights of Attribution Required |
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