Last year I drafted a paper on an approach called actionable systems risk. The name is terrible, but I believe the idea to be compelling. Apply systems thinking for bank and hedge fund risk management in a practical way.
Let me know your thoughts. In the paper is a brief summary of the housing market analysis which I used for the 2007-2009 housing bubble while working for a small New York based hedge fund. Current beliefs involve rapid de-leveraging leading to hopefully greater institutional de-coupling before a cascading systemic failure occurs.